Riding the Data Rapids - and coming out alive (and well)

I have started, written and re-written this blog at least five times since beginning it in June.  It began providing suggestions and encouragement to help create opportunity out of all the negative data that was coming out at the time (and still is).  But I was also taking my own advice, and with the ever-changing data rapids and my own desire to harness it and make something positive, I threw all of my time and energy into creating Red Dog Inn 

I took a little retirement dream and have formally made it a business.  I did it by riding the data rapids and enlisting professional guides when needed to help me navigate the rapid and determine how my plan for the inn needed to change.  I’ll share my story and encourage you to do the same in your business and personal lives.

Ride the rapids

I use this analogy because data can be a lot like rapids.  There you are, just monitoring your stable data and all of sudden the data start moving rapidly, it’s hard to navigate or interpret, and the data is just coming at you from all directions – fast and furious. 

Red Dog Inn started as a way to have fun in retirement and fulfill a dream, not as a way to make money or finance retirement.  So, I started small, advertising only on Airbnb and through a Facebook page, @OshellsRedDog.  Everything seemed to be working fine. I even had a few reservations in the off-season in early 2020.  Good reviews, lots of positive feedback.  Don (my husband and fellow innkeeper) and I were eagerly awaiting the launch of the tourism season on the Olympic Peninsula – Memorial Day weekend with the Juan de Fuca Festival – already with one reservation for that weekend that was made in February. 

Then…. COVID-19, with Washington state at the heart of the first outbreak.  I hit my first data rapid.  Events, activities and areas across the Olympic peninsula started canceling or closing.  Booked reservations through June were canceled by guests, views on Airbnb tanked. Washington state and Clallam County issued stay-at-home orders, later social distancing and masks.  Travel and tourism suffered and continue to lose millions, Airbnb laid off staff and re-focused on their core business. The stock market and economy increased everyone’s worry about retirement investments.

Read the rapids

As I navigated these rapids, the first data-driven decision was to not take guests at Red Dog Inn until, at least, early July.  At the time, it was too risky for everyone to consider opening our home. 

The next decision I made was that I had to start treating Red Dog Inn like a real business, not a hobby.  This is where I needed a skilled guide to help me through the rapid. Which I got in the form of a dear friend who is a tech guru and all-around great person, Jenne Pierce.  Jenne volunteered to help me build an online business, and I will be forever grateful for her guidance and wisdom.  I could not have made it through this first rapid on my own.

Ride the rapids

This decision was actually a channel to the next two sets of rapids.  These two rapids nearly came together at a few points. One rapid threw all sorts of data and information about building an online business. Do you know what it takes to build a professional-quality website capable of attracting and booking guests?  Well, maybe you do, but I sure didn’t.  Lesson number one – invest in professional photography (more about this later).  There was a lot of learning involved in this set of rapids, guided by Jenne – selecting a platform, building a site, wording, photos, taxes, transactions, SEO, marketing.

The second, concurrent, rapid was all of the data and information needed to determine how to run a bed and breakfast in the pandemic age.  While an entire Pan-Gen is likely to grow up with masks and social distancing being a norm, those of us from other generations are having to adjust to this new world on many levels.  And let’s face it, it’s hard.  There is a lot that has to happen to safely open a bed and breakfast – for guests and innkeepers.  Changes to policies and procedures, changes to food, changes to cleaning, changes to just about everything. This is where it was helpful to have someone else helping to paddle this rapid – innkeeper, Don.

Read the rapids

Looking back, I think the website building rapid was a little less treacherous than the inn-operations rapid.  Needless to say, with the expert consulting of Jenne, I launched my website.  The SEO is looking great, Airbnb results have picked up considerably, and I recently had my first booking from our own website.  This is also another example of having a skilled guide – this time in the form of a professional photographer, Eric Neurath.  The professional photos are WONDERFUL (and there are more to come)!  So wonderful, I replaced the old (and now, embarrassing) photos I had on Airbnb. It was also at this time I learned that SEO is a strange and wonderful thing.

Key to navigating the inn-operations rapid was learning from others who could help translate guidelines and data.  To this end, our own Clallam County health department was a great source of information and even Airbnb started guidelines for hosts.  I learned how to clean and sanitize a room and ensure a safe environment in our home for our guests and my family.  I learned how to schedule and space guests to allow for the safest cleaning and minimize guest interaction.  But key was learning how to communicate with guests about our new operating guidelines and still keep that friendly tail-wagging feel to Red Dog Inn.

Ride the rapids

I am currently riding another rapid that could go on for a stretch.  Holy-moly, this stuff works!  I give all the credit to Eric’s photos and the SEO genius of Jenne.  I am literally booked (under new guidelines) until end of August now. 

Read the rapids

Changes, learning, and new data will continue.  There is even more data monitoring now to help measure the success of Red Dog Inn.  I will continue to refine the business/website, the services offered by Red Dog Inn, as well as learn even more about SEO and the new reservation platform.  In addition, the impact of COVID-19 on travel will continue to fluctuate, with ever-changing guidelines that Red Dog Inn will need to respond to.

Coming out alive and well

Red Dog Inn is surviving, even flourishing.  Most importantly, we’re still having fun!  But I’ve ridden enough rapids in my life to know this isn’t the end.  There will always be rapids.  My lesson that I would share with you, is that you can increase your chances of surviving the data rapids by being prepared.  This means finding good data, interpreting it without bias, enlisting professional guides when needed, and riding that data rapid.  Then look back and smile, wasn’t that fun?!

How to Lie with Statistics

If you haven't already read this little classic written by Darrell Huff and published in 1954, you need to.  Especially now, you need to.  It draws from everyday life examples to show us how easily we can be misled, and even influenced, by data and how it is presented.

One of the reasons I think this book is so informative for everyone, is that it is written by a non-statistician.  That’s right, Darrell Huff wasn’t some renowned statistician, he was a journalist.  He made extra money freelancing and wrote several “how to” articles.  Like most writers, Huff is not without his own controversy, but it was How to Lie with Statistics where I think he did his best service to community and consumer.  Huff helped the common person better evaluate and understand the data and charts they see and hear about in media and marketing.  Many of the themes of this book continue today, including the ever popular “Correlation does not imply causation.”

My personal copy

Understanding how statistics can be misleading is even more important today.  Every day we are hit with battles pitting “good” data against “bad” data, “lies” against “truth.”  Today's social media uses memes and fantastic headlines to grab your attention.  But too often, we accept the conclusion (or headline) put forth without questioning or even examining the data that went into the conclusion. 

I encourage you to read the book. It’s fun, it’s informative, it’s a quick read to add to your stay-at-home reading list.  I leave you with learning from one of my favorite chapters and an example of how it’s playing out today. 

Chapter 7.  The Semiattached Figure.  “If you can’t prove what you want to prove, demonstrate something else and pretend that they are the same thing.”

This chapter resonates so strongly with me today, because it seems to be the rule of how some are reporting and lying with statistics around COVID-19.  To keep this blog short, I will talk about just one example.  I’m sure you can come up with many more examples and I’d love to hear about them in the Comments section.

It is very important to many, particularly political figures, that a message of great testing capabilities and performance be communicated.  If you can convince the public that you have testing under control and are doing appropriate amounts of testing, then they will be more likely to return to work and re-start corporate profits. 

Unfortunately, data that would help you prove appropriate amounts of testing don’t really exist.  However, there is data that shows you have done the most testing of any country.  Demonstrate you have conducted the most individual tests, and that’s the same thing as providing appropriate amounts of testing.  You further conclude that with that much testing, if there was a potential problem of virus growth, you would know it.  You are safe, go back to work, resume normal activity.  We’ve done the most testing so it’s all okay. Headline - "We're #1!"

The problem is, while the statistic is correct, it is not answering the question.  In order to answer the question of whether you have testing under control and are conducting the appropriate amount of testing, you need to look at a “per” number.  You need to put your comparison samples on even footing. You're not just comparing apples, you're comparing a Red Delicious to a Red Delicious. If you look at the statistic that is needed to answer the question – how many tests per 1,000 people – the data doesn’t support your conclusion. Headline - "We're not really consistently tracking, but we know we're better than South Korea."

Which is truth and which is a lie?  Both data points are truth, and both could also be lies - depending upon the context in which they are presented and the conclusions you are deriving from the data.

Think about it, look for more examples.  Read the book!  It could also be a great family learning exercise.  You will be amazed, and likely also disgusted, by the view through the glass you now use to evaluate media, marketing and political messages.

Cheers,

MK

Knock, knock. You still there?

I’ve had a flurry of “Congrats” emails thanks to LinkedIn, so I decided it was time to bring everyone up to date on Mary Kaye O’Brien, via a first post on my new blog.  Note, this post often uses the plural pronoun, we, to include both parts of O’shells – myself (O’) and my husband, Don Bushelle (shells).

My last day working for Zillow was April 15, 2019.  My position was eliminated and after thinking about it (for all of 2 seconds) I decided, I’m out of here!  Enough of Seattle and corporate life, time to devote myself full time to O’shells and Red Dog Inn. 

On April 15, I also got a call from a previous neighbor (a real estate agent) asking if we would talk to her about personally selling her our house.  She got my number (with permission) from another neighbor who knew we were going to sell and leave Seattle.  I gave her a tour on April 16, told her what I wanted and how I wanted the whole transaction to go down, and April 17 we signed the paperwork to begin the process.  Gee whiz!  Was that easy!    

April 22, 2019, we were formally established as an LLC with the State of Washington and opened Red Dog Inn!  Yes, quite a whirlwind of an April last year!

Since then, we have literally been focused on Red Dog Inn – both the physical structure as well as the marketing.  We had a full house in July 2019, as we hosted family from near and far to help celebrate (surprise celebration) my sister’s 60^th birthday.  We had a few inquiries after that but didn’t have another guest until Labor Day weekend.  Admittedly, that guest was our goddaughter and her family, and we didn’t charge them.  So technically, Red Dog Inn didn’t make any money in 2019.  Red Dog did learn lots of new tricks about inn-keeping though.  I began listing the three guest rooms on Airbnb in January 2020.  We had one reservation in January, three in February, and then……….COVID-19.

O’shells really embodies and brings together the two sides of me that always seemed to be at odds before – the consumer insights guru (professional) with a passion for nature and hospitality (personal).  To that end, I also did a little bit of consulting in 2019.  Since the hospitality industry is still in some turmoil with the COVID-19 virus, I will likely spend more time than planned to build out this part of O’shells for the remainder of 2020.

But I also wanted to take this opportunity of “semi-retirement” to just do things I’ve always wanted to do but felt I never could because I was always traveling between two homes – one in Seattle and one west of Port Angeles, WA.  I always had my toiletry bag and suitcase packed.  If I wasn’t traveling between homes, I was traveling (usually flying) to some locale for work.

So, in October (and following my love of theater), I tried out to be part of a Speaker’s Theater at the Port Angeles Community Playhouse, “The Laramie Project: Ten Years Later.”  I ended up having three very small roles, but I had a blast!  More fun and exhilarating than any public speaking I have ever done before.  

I was hooked.  I started volunteering, helping to distribute posters for upcoming plays, interviewing kids (and a few adults) and creating bios for the Children’s Theater holiday production, and decorating for the fundraising gala.  In April, I was honored to be asked to officially join the Board of Directors, and I am also serving on the Marketing Committee.  It’s a challenging time for theater and I’m very excited about being part of this team to continue to bring theater and arts to the Olympic Peninsula.  It’s a very exciting time for arts in general here on the Peninsula, and just like getting in on the ground level of a startup, I’m incredibly excited about the possibilities for all arts on the North Olympic Peninsula.

That’s it in a nutshell.  I hope someday in the future you will stay at Red Dog Inn (contact me about the “Friends & Family Discount”), or perhaps we will cross paths at some conference, event, or trail.  Until then, stay safe, stay in contact. 

I will be using this blog in the future to share blended insights to both amuse and intrigue you.  I leave you with web site addresses for both O’shells and Red Dog Inn.  I will admit, they need tons and tons of work. And if any of my friends are interested in providing a little pro bono site design and programming work, I would welcome it with open arms!

Cheers!

,MK

www.o-shells.com

www.red-dog-inn.com

on Facebook at @OshellsRedDog